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Unhappiness with Petro-Canada stock price could be hard to fix: analyst

February 3rd, 2009 by Financial Resource Centre

CALGARY — Investors have long been frustrated by Petro-Canada’s share price, so it’s not surprising if some are pressing for the company (TSX:PCA) to change its direction but it might be difficult to do so in the current environment, an analyst said Monday.

One source reported that the Ontario Teachers Pension Plan, which owns about three per cent of the oil and gas company’s shares, will soon file documents to U.S. securities regulators that it intends to take a more aggressive role in Petro-Canada’s strategy.

A Petro-Canada spokeswoman acknowledged Monday that Teachers has been in touch with the company but the pension hadn’t indicated that it intended to make such a filing.

BMO Nesbitt Burns analyst Randy Ollenberger said Monday that Petro-Canada’s share price has lagged behind its peers over the past five years and the company “just didn’t seem to take advantage of the high commodity price environment.”

“There’s been investors agitating for a change in strategy here for a little while and these things typically do take time to unfold,” he said.

Ollenberger said shareholders want to see “evidence of more capital discipline,” which could involve better focusing Petro-Canada’s widely spread asset base, which includes operations in the oilsands, offshore East Coast, the North Sea, Libya and Syria.

But it may not be the ideal time to be overhauling the company, with financial markets in disarray and commodity prices languishing at less than a third of their July peak, he said.

“This is a tough environment to be thinking about repositioning a company if you’re going to be selling assets in order to buy other assets. It’s difficult and I think you’d want to be pretty cautious about doing that right now,” Ollenberger said.

Petro-Canada spokeswoman Andrea Ranson said the company and pension plan have had discussions “that have been very cordial and constructive and they’ve certainly not indicated to us that they had any intent to make such a filing.”

“We have a strong balance sheet. We have an excellent suite of growth projects and a great suite of assets to generate cash. We think we’re well positioned to deliver long-term value.”

One major Petro-Canada shareholder told the Globe that the rate of return from major projects, like a joint venture with Libya’s national oil company, has not been good enough.

The newspaper also said investors have floated the idea of Petro-Canada selling of its 12 per cent stake in Syncrude Canada Ltd., the single largest oilsands operation. The proceeds would be used to buy back shares.

“We’re not looking at share buybacks in 2009 because our strategy is to preserve financial flexibility during the economic downturn,” Ranson said.

“We’re very much strategically pacing our growth projects right now.”

Petro-Canada’s board has given the go-ahead to three major growth projects: the Libya oil development, natural gas fields in Syria and an expansion to the White Rose field off Newfoundland’s coast.

Decisions on three other projects have been put on hold until commodity prices recover and the economic picture brightens. Those include a revamp to Petro-Canada’s Montreal refinery, an expansion to its MacKay River oilsands development and the Fort Hills oilsands project.

Petro-Canada holds a 60 per cent stake in Fort Hills, with Teck Cominco Ltd. (TSX:TCK.B) and UTS Energy Corp. (TSX:UTS) evenly splitting the remainder.

The partners disclosed last fall that costs at Fort Hills had swelled 50 per cent over the previous estimate, prompting the consortium to delay a decision on the mining portion and shelve an accompanying upgrader indefinitely.

Petro-Canada shares were up slightly to $26.91 in midday trading on the Toronto Stock Exchange Monday. Over the past 52 weeks, they have swung from a high of $61.85 in May to a low of $20.10 in November.

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